51 historical city snapshots compared on CopeCheck's heuristic sector-exposure index (0–100). Higher means more concentration in sectors assigned higher weights; it is not a probability or job-loss forecast.
Measured ONS statistics, shown as context. The rankings below are a structural exposure model and are not derived from these figures.
Vacancies are at their lowest level outside the pandemic since 2014, and youth unemployment is at an 11-year high. Source: ONS Labour market overview, UK: September 2026 (released 15 September 2026; next release 20 October 2026). Retrieved 2026-10-22. LFS-derived outputs became plain “official statistics” on 11 August 2026 and ONS is not seeking reaccreditation. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
| # | City | Region | Baseline population | Score ▲ | Relative exposure | Model scenario |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | Cambridge | East of England | 145,700 | 48.0 | Cambridge sits at the opposite end of the vulnerability spectrum from almost eve… | |
| 50 | Oxford | South East | 152,450 | 48.8 | Oxford mirrors Cambridge with an even more extreme concentration in education an… | |
| 49 | Bath | South West | 94,782 | 55.0 | Bath has assembled an economic profile that reads like a protection spell agains… | |
| 48 | Brighton | South East | 229,700 | 57.1 | Brighton has assembled an economic profile that's distinctly modern in its resil… | |
| 47 | Exeter | South West | 130,428 | 57.5 | Exeter's dominant health and education sectors — 13.8% and 12.2% respectively, t… | |
| 46 | Edinburgh | Scotland | 524,930 | 60.4 | Edinburgh has assembled one of the most resilient economic profiles of any city … | |
| 45 | Portsmouth | South East | 208,100 | 61.3 | Portsmouth has a structural advantage that most cities would envy and few would … | |
| 44 | Aberdeen | Scotland | 228,800 | 61.6 | Aberdeen's economic story is defined by energy, and its AI resilience depends en… | |
| 43 | York | Yorkshire and the Humber | 210,618 | 61.7 | York's economy runs on a combination that's surprisingly well-suited to the AI e… | |
| 42 | London | London | 8,799,800 | 62.3 | London's measured labour market is moving against the grain of an aggregate that… | |
| 41 | Cardiff | Wales | 362,756 | 63.4 | Cardiff benefits from a structural advantage unique among UK cities outside Lond… | |
| 40 | Newcastle | North East | 302,820 | 65.7 | Newcastle has more going for it than the post-industrial narrative suggests. The… | |
| 39 | Plymouth | South West | 264,200 | 65.8 | Plymouth's economic structure is genuinely unusual — health at 12.6% and public … | |
| 38 | Glasgow | Scotland | 635,130 | 66.1 | Glasgow's post-industrial reinvention has been more successful than it gets cred… | |
| 37 | Norwich | East of England | 144,000 | 66.2 | Norwich sits at the intersection of two economic identities: the insurance herit… | |
| 36 | Liverpool | North West | 496,784 | 66.4 | Liverpool's economic structure offers more natural AI resilience than its post-i… | |
| 35 | Bristol | South West | 472,400 | 66.6 | Bristol has one of the most genuinely resilient economic profiles of any city in… | |
| 34 | Chester | North West | 118,200 | 67.0 | Chester balances heritage tourism with a meaningful financial services cluster —… | |
| 32 | Sheffield | Yorkshire and the Humber | 556,500 | 67.2 | Sheffield's post-steel economy has done something genuinely impressive: built a … | |
| 33 | Carlisle | North West | 108,524 | 67.2 | Carlisle sits at the geographic margin of England — a border city whose economy … | |
| 31 | Lincoln | East Midlands | 103,886 | 67.5 | Lincoln's economy blends agricultural heritage with a growing university-and-hea… | |
| 29 | Reading | South East | 174,224 | 69.3 | Reading's tech corridor identity is real — 11.8% in information and communicatio… | |
| 30 | Manchester | North West | 552,858 | 69.3 | Manchester's narrative is one of reinvention — from cotton to commerce to creati… | |
| 28 | Southampton | South East | 252,796 | 70.1 | Southampton's economy is pulled in two directions by its two defining assets — t… | |
| 27 | Nottingham | East Midlands | 323,600 | 70.7 | Nottingham sits in the middle of almost every metric — mid-table score, mid-size… | |
| 26 | Preston | North West | 141,818 | 71.6 | Preston has earned national and international attention for its community wealth… | |
| 25 | Gloucester | South West | 131,107 | 72.4 | Gloucester's economic profile carries more vulnerability than its proximity to t… | |
| 24 | Leeds | Yorkshire and the Humber | 812,000 | 72.8 | Leeds has built the largest financial and professional services cluster outside … | |
| 23 | Middlesbrough | North East | 140,545 | 73.9 | Middlesbrough's economic history is a case study in serial displacement — steel … | |
| 22 | Birmingham | West Midlands | 1,144,919 | 74.9 | Birmingham's sheer scale — over a million people, nearly £29bn in GVA — means th… | |
| 21 | Leicester | East Midlands | 354,224 | 75.1 | Leicester's manufacturing legacy runs deeper than most — at 9.8%, it's still sig… | |
| 20 | Coventry | West Midlands | 371,521 | 75.9 | Coventry understands industrial disruption better than almost any English city —… | |
| 19 | Hull | Yorkshire and the Humber | 259,778 | 76.1 | Hull's economic profile is a familiar post-industrial mix — retail at 11.6%, adm… | |
| 18 | Derby | East Midlands | 257,174 | 76.5 | Derby's economy is more concentrated than almost any city in this dataset — Roll… | |
| 17 | Blackburn | North West | 148,942 | 77.0 | Blackburn's manufacturing sector at 14.2% is among the highest of any city in th… | |
| 16 | Ipswich | East of England | 138,718 | 77.2 | Ipswich has an unusually specific vulnerability: financial services at 11.4%, dr… | |
| 15 | Milton Keynes | South East | 248,821 | 77.9 | Milton Keynes was purpose-built for the 20th century — a car-dependent, services… | |
| 14 | Wakefield | Yorkshire and the Humber | 345,038 | 78.6 | Wakefield's economy tells the story of a post-industrial city that found a secon… | |
| 13 | Doncaster | Yorkshire and the Humber | 310,542 | 79.4 | Doncaster's pivot from coal to logistics was geographically rational — the town … | |
| 12 | Stoke-on-Trent | West Midlands | 256,375 | 80.9 | Stoke-on-Trent has already lived through one economic extinction event — the col… | |
| 11 | Warrington | North West | 210,014 | 81.0 | Warrington's economic identity has always been defined by its position between L… | |
| 10 | Sunderland | North East | 277,417 | 81.1 | Sunderland pinned its post-industrial hopes on Nissan, and for a generation that… | |
| 9 | Basildon | East of England | 187,199 | 81.3 | Basildon presents an unusual vulnerability profile: financial services at 9.6% a… | |
| 8 | Wolverhampton | West Midlands | 263,357 | 81.5 | Wolverhampton retains a manufacturing base that would have been the envy of most… | |
| 7 | Northampton | East Midlands | 224,610 | 82.1 | Northampton sits at the heart of the 'golden triangle' of logistics — the area b… | |
| 6 | Peterborough | East of England | 215,664 | 82.4 | Peterborough grew fast on the logistics boom — warehouse after warehouse springi… | |
| 5 | Luton | East of England | 225,300 | 84.9 | Luton's economy is, in effect, an airport with a town attached. Transport and st… | |
| 4 | Slough | South East | 164,438 | 86.2 | Slough's economy reads like a checklist of automation targets: 12.2% in admin su… | |
| 3 | Crawley | South East | 118,897 | 87.4 | Crawley's economy doesn't just lean on Gatwick — it orbits it like a satellite t… | |
| 2 | Telford | West Midlands | 155,990 | 88.6 | Telford was literally built to be a manufacturing town — a new town designed aro… | |
| 1 | Swindon | South West | 185,609 | 89.0 | Swindon built its modern identity on manufacturing and logistics — exactly the s… |