Ontario · Population 1,017,449 · GVA £68,000m
Ottawa sits in a mixed position in the age of AI-driven automation. With Public Administration at 18.5%, Professional & Scientific at 12.8%, and Health at 9.5%, the city's employment base is moderately exposed to displacement. Across high-risk sectors alone, 23.8% of the workforce operates in roles where automation and AI adoption are accelerating. The question for Ottawa is not whether these jobs will change, but how quickly the transition happens and whether the city's institutions can adapt at the same pace. The broader Ontario economic trajectory will shape the options available, but local leadership decisions made in the next five years will determine whether Ottawa navigates this transition or gets dragged through it.
Ottawa's economy reads like a to-do list for GPT and a fleet of robots. Public Administration (18.5%), Professional & Scientific (12.8%), Health (9.5%) — that is not a diversified economy, that is a countdown. 23.8% of jobs sit in high-risk automation categories. The council will inevitably announce a Future of Work Initiative that consists of a website, a conference, and a press release. Meanwhile, every major employer in Ottawa is quietly running the numbers on how many positions they can eliminate by 2030. The workforce is not being retrained — it is being reassured, which is not the same thing. Ontario politicians will talk about innovation corridors and tech hubs as if saying the words creates the reality.
Ottawa needs to act now on workforce transition. With 23.8% of employment in high-risk sectors, the city should prioritise retraining programmes targeting Public Administration and Professional & Scientific workers toward AI-adjacent roles, technical maintenance, and green energy positions. Partnering with local employers to create transition funds before displacement hits at scale is essential. Ottawa's location and existing infrastructure in Ontario are genuine assets, but only if the workforce can meet 21st-century employers halfway. Investment in technical education, apprenticeship programmes, and digital skills training should be the immediate priority.
Here is what will actually happen in Ottawa: the local authority will commission a regeneration strategy from a consultancy charging six figures. It will contain the words 'digital,' 'innovation,' and 'vibrant' on every other page. They will announce a Digital Skills Hub in a converted retail unit, complete with a ribbon-cutting photo op. Meanwhile, the Public Administration and Professional & Scientific sectors will automate on their own schedule, and the 23.8% of workers in high-risk roles will discover that 'upskilling' means a six-week course that qualifies them for a job that does not exist locally. Five years from now, the same officials will be at the same conferences giving the same speeches about Ottawa's 'untapped potential.'
Employment share by SIC sector, with automation risk weight and contribution to overall score. Sectors with higher risk weights contribute more to the vulnerability score.
| Sector | Employment % | Risk Weight | Risk Tier | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Administration & Defence | 18.5% | 0.22 | low | 4.07 |
| Professional, Scientific & Technical | 12.8% | 0.3 | low | 3.84 |
| Human Health & Social Work | 9.5% | 0.18 | low | 1.71 |
| Retail | 9.2% | 0.8 | high | 7.36 |
| Information & Communication | 8.5% | 0.5 | medium | 4.25 |
| Education | 8.2% | 0.15 | low | 1.23 |
| Accommodation & Food Services | 6.2% | 0.48 | medium | 2.98 |
| Construction | 5.5% | 0.28 | low | 1.54 |
| Administrative & Support Services | 5.5% | 0.85 | high | 4.67 |
| Financial & Insurance Services | 3.5% | 0.75 | high | 2.62 |
| Manufacturing | 2.8% | 0.82 | high | 2.3 |
| Transport & Storage | 2.8% | 0.78 | high | 2.18 |
| Arts, Entertainment & Recreation | 2.8% | 0.2 | low | 0.56 |
| Wholesale | 2.2% | 0.55 | medium | 1.21 |
| Real Estate | 1.8% | 0.4 | medium | 0.72 |
| Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing | 0.2% | 0.25 | low | 0.05 |
The vulnerability score is a weighted average of Ottawa's sector employment shares. Each sector carries an automation risk weight (0.0–1.0) derived from Frey & Osborne's occupational automation probabilities, mapped to NAICS sectors via Statistics Canada data. The weighted average is then normalised to a 0–100 scale. A score of 48.2 means Ottawa's workforce is relatively less concentrated in automatable sectors compared to other Canada cities.